Manager, Demand Forecasting & Analysis

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) manages the efficient flow of electricity on more than 11,000 circuit-miles of high-voltage transmission lines, dispatching power from hundreds of generating units across the state.

The NYISO’s Operations department invites applications for full-time Manager, Demand Forecasting & Analysis.

The Manager, Demand Forecasting & Analysis oversees the overall planning, development, process and communication of Demand Forecasting and Analysis department. This role will manage, maintain and monitor the accuracy of the demand forecast models, including the Day-Ahead and Real-Time load forecasts used to operate the NYISO markets, and the long-term forecasts used in planning studies. Responsible for the annual Installed Capacity (ICAP) Forecast, and the annual Load & Capacity Data report.  Lead the Grid Transition department’s efforts in forecasting and modeling distributed energy resources and incorporating the outcomes into NYISO’s energy and capacity forecasts. Responsible for driving innovation in the development of the NYISO’s load forecasting processes and procedures through the adoption of industry-standard techniques and data sources to address the evolution in the composition, weather-sensitivity, and pattern of electric demand in New York State, including the broad integration of probabilistic forecasting.

ESSENTIAL DUTIES and RESPONSIBILITIES 

• Manage the development and maintenance of day-ahead and real-time forecast models, including the on-going analysis of forecast performance and communication of recommended corrective actions to NYISO Grid and Market Operations. 
• Manage all team interactions with the management and executive leadership of the Operations and System and Resource Planning departments, including oversight of responses to ad hoc inquiries and scheduled monthly reporting and touchpoints.
• Manage the maintenance and enhancement of all software tools and models utilized in the development, execution and tracking of the day-ahead and real-time forecast procedures.
• Manage the development and maintenance of long-term annual energy and peak demand forecasts utilized in each component of the NYISO’s Comprehensive Planning Process, including the Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP), the Reliability Needs Assessment, the quarterly Short-Term Assessment of Reliability Assessment (STAR), the System Outlook and the Public Policy Planning Process.  
• Manage timely and complete delivery of key study drivers, including the load forecasts, gross and net load shapes, and load forecast uncertainty factors.
• Manage the development and delivery of critical assumptions for the annual FERC 715 power flow cases, including base case load forecasts and location-specific large load.
• Lead the overall corporate effort to integrate distributed energy resources, including behind-the-meter solar and electric battery storage into the NYISO’s short-term and long-term forecasts.
• Manage the development of the annual Installed Reserve Margin and Installed Capacity Market forecasts. Oversee engagement with Transmission Owner management and staff to evaluate and vet each of the TO forecasts.  
• Manage the team’s coordination with the NYISO’s Resource Adequacy management and staff, including staff presentations and timely delivery of key process inputs, including forecast and load-forecast uncertainty assumptions. 
• Manage the development and performance tracking of the NYISO’s annual budget forecast. Manage all department interactions with the Controller and CFO regarding the proposed forecast and variance tracking. 
• Manage the preparation of the annual “Load and Capacity Data" report, including engagement with subject-matter experts in Legal, Installed Capacity Market Operations, Distributed Resources Operations, System Resource Planning to access and validate data.  
• Manage the preparation of the annual FERC 714 filing, including engagement with Grid Operations, Customer Settlements and Market Design.  
• Serve as the primary point-of-contact within the NYISO for all market design impacting (and impacted by) short-term and long-term load forecasts and assessments. Manage DFA’s provision of data and associated analyses to support market design.
• Develop and maintain a process for monitoring, evaluating, adopting and implementing the best practices for demand forecasting and analysis. Network with colleagues and subject-matter experts in industry forums to exchange lessons-learned and advance solutions to emerging forecasting challenges. 
• Develop and execute strategies to enhance NYISO visibility into emerging trends in electric loads through engagement with the distribution utilities, economic development agencies, and individual facility developers and operators.  
• Forecast and monitor resources, operating costs of department and direct preparation of budget requests. 
• Responsible for establishing and consistently maintaining an environment that leads to opportunities for team and individual growth, accomplishment and reward. Perform duties of staff supervision, performance appraisals, departmental decisions, career guidance and other duties as assigned by the Grid Transition Director.
• Set objectives for department productivity measures and trains subordinate staff to accomplish goals. Participate in forming and carrying out department’s policies and procedures and recommending divisional policies and process improvements to executives. 
• Manages team engagement with NYISO stakeholders at the Load Forecasting Task Force (LFTF), Electric System Planning Working Group (ESPWG), and the New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC) Provides support by communicating technical information and studies on demand forecasting and analysis to the NYISO stakeholders. 
• Serve as the organization’s primary point of contact for development and review of NERC and NYSRC reliability rules pertaining to load modelling and extreme weather contingencies.  
• Collaborate with NYISO External Affairs, including regulatory and corporate communications, on all matters pertaining to demand forecasting, including development of the annual Power Trends publication. 

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree (BS) in Business, Economics, Electrical Engineering or related technical field required; Master’s degree (MS) desired
• Diverse understanding of New York state energy policies related to energy generation and consumption
• Ten years of related experience in engineering, operations research, applied statistics, mathematics or economic modeling; or equivalent combination of education, training and experience. 

ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS 

• Ability to read, analyze and interpret the most complex documents. Ability to respond effectively to the most sensitive inquiries or complaints. Ability to write business reports, articles and presentations using business techniques or style. Ability to make effective and persuasive speeches and presentations on complex topics to top management, public groups and/or boards of directors. 
• Ability to apply advanced mathematical concepts such as exponents, logarithms, quadratic equations and permutations. Ability to apply mathematical operations to such tasks as frequency distribution, determination of test reliability and validity, analysis of variance, correlation techniques, sampling theory and factor analysis. 
• Intermediate competency in Windows operating environment using MS Office applications, e-mail and internet programs. Position routinely uses the following programs: SAS, Oracle, Visual Basic, proprietary DSS, Ranger and other custom proprietary programs. 
• Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts and draw valid conclusions. Ability to interpret an extensive variety of technical instructions in mathematical or diagram form and deal with several abstract and concrete variables. 

The NYISO offers the flexibility to work both in the office and remotely, providing our employees with an enhanced work life balance. While the majority of the responsibilities of this role can be performed remotely, employees will have on-site requirements based on business needs. The NYISO takes pride in recruiting, developing and retaining highly talented individuals. In addition to competitive salaries, we offer a comprehensive benefits package and innovative reward programs.

Review of applications will begin immediately and continue until the position is filled.

 All offers of employment will be made contingent upon the successful completion of a drug screening and background check.

 The NYISO is an Equal Opportunity Employer and as such, does not discriminate in its hiring or employment practices.